If make a prediction is difficult in the 20km, on 50km it would become a game of chance, since the variables involved this year very difficult to analyze.
Not just the absence of Diniz. Even the confirmation of these days about the political decision on the non-presence of the athletes followed by Victor Chegin in Beijing increases the difficulty of making forecasts. The exclusion of gold and silver of the European Cup in Murcia, Mikhail Ryzhov and Ivan Noskov have their considerable weight. Aleksandr Yargunkin, winner of Russian championships in Cheboksary, the only Russian walker competing in Beijing, this does not seem so unassailable as the first two.
The Chinese team: the hosts do not seem on 50km as strong as they appear on their colleagues on the shortest distance. Of course Yu Wei, Zhang Lin and Wu Qianlong competing at home will enjoy the local Chinese suffocating cheering, and that should get a medal, but do not see them, barring mistakes, get on the top step of the podium.
The Japan team: having three athletes in first five of the world list is not what everyday.
No dounbt on the course of Wajima (the same for ten years) and the timing obtained there, knowing the attention paid by Japan in the organization. Hirooki Arai, Takayuki Tanii and Yuki Yamazaki will certainly be among the protagonists.
The fastest race of the year has been in Dudince and was won by Matej Toth with the best time of 3:34:38 on a super tested course. If he will repeat a performance around those levels we believe the strong athlete Slovak the true pretender to gold, also in view of its versatility (on 20km his season best is 1:20:21 that speaks volumes about his fitness).
Along with Toth have done well in Dudince the two Polish Rafai Augustyn and Lukasz Novak and Robert Heffernan, who we believe have digested the bitter cup of Zurich.
In terms of Center and South America the spotlight are on Horacio Nava who won in Arica a wonderful Pan Amarican Cup in 3:45:45 and Andres Choco although two 50km over a month after that of Toronto at Pan American Games, may pose a difficulty.
Jared Tallent this year not have a time on the 50km. His only presence in a race of the Olympic distance is the 20 km of Adelaide won in 1:24:05, but we find it very difficult not to consider him among the contenders for the podium and maybe the only real antagonist of Toth.
In this context, the list of the top 30 athletes of the year there are also the three Italians who will be part of the Beijing team. Needless to say, Marco de Luca, for the result of Murcia in the European Cup and its historical precedents, compete not only for the position among the eight finalists, but aspire to something more. The times of Matteo Giupponi and Teodorico Caporaso, (slightly off the list of the top 309 should be reconfirmed in the heat of Beijing may be worth the positions between the 10th and the 20th.
We conclude, with our quotations using an equestian language:
Matej Toth: winning 55%, placed 65%
Jared Tallent: winning 50%, placed 65%
Robert Heffernan: winning 25%, placed 45%
Yu Wei, Zhang Lin and Wu Qianlong: winning 10%, placed 50%
Hirooki Arai, Takayuki Tanii e Yuji Yamakaki: winning 10%, placed 40%
Marco de Luca: winning 10%, placed 30%
Aleksandr Yargunkin: winning 10%, placed 30%
Horacio Nava: winning 10%, placed 40%
Andres Chocho: winning 5%, placed 25%
Rafai Augustyn and Lukasz Novak: winning 5%, placed 25%
That there is room for some surprise last hour?