Tomorrow at 2.30pm local time (7.30pm CET) in Buenos Aires the second stage, the one that will establish the final result of the Youth Olympic Games in the race.
5.000m U18 boys track walk
After what we saw in the first stage we must say that we see a medal hypothesis restricted to six athletes: Oscar Patin (ECU), Suraj Panwar (IND), Wang Xin (CHN), Menjivar Gilberto (ESA), Coordova Fernandez Cesar (MEX ) and Finocchietti Davide (ITA).
In the following table, which we have drafted in a slightly different way to the official arrival order of the first stage, we have summarized the most interesting data
| Athlete | Arrival Mark | Penalty | Total | Red Cards |
| | | | | |
| Cordova Fernandez Cesar (MEX) | 20:09.90 | 30 | 20:39.90 | 3 |
| | | | | |
| Patin Oscar (ECU) | 20:13.69 | | 20:13.69 | - |
| | | | | |
| Panwar Suraj (IND) | 20:23.30 | | 20:23.30 | 1 |
| | | | | |
| Wang Xin (CHN) | 20:28.02 | | 20:28.02 | - |
| | | | | |
| Menjivar Gilberto (ESA) | 20:31.53 | | 20:31.53 | 2 |
| | | | | |
| Finocchietti Davide (ITA) | 20:51.96 | | 20:51.96 | - |
Aw assume that the six athletes now know each other and know their potential, and therefore they will try to create occations, in the second stage, to promote their proof.
We see Cesar Cordova Fernandez (MEX) capable, if he does not make technical mistakes like those committed in the last two laps of the first stage, able to get a time around 20:15, which is also able to get Ocar Patin (ECU).
The challenge for the victory in the second stage should be restricted to these two, or, at the most, also to Suraj Panwar (IND) which was the real surprise of the first stage and that managed to finish the test with only one red card on the five judges present.
But for the final victory, assuming also a time of the second stage as from the following table, we see our success rates.
Our hypothetical times of the second round take into account possible improvements of the athletes, but they absolutely do not take into account any jury penalties, which at the moment are considered non-influential.
Certainly the athletes for the consolidation of their positions will have to be very careful not to enter the Penalty Area, because, given the current very short gap between their split marks, a penalty would also compromise the result of the first stage.
| Athlete | 1st stage | Forecast 2nd stage | Forecast Total | % Gold | % Silver | % Bronze |
| | | | | | | |
| Cordova Fernandez Cesar (MEX) | 20:39.90 | 20:15 | 40:54.90 | 10 | 40 | 50 |
| | | | | | | |
| Patin Oscar (ECU) | 20:13.69 | 20:15 | 40:28.69 | 50 | 100 | 100 |
| | | | | | | |
| Panwar Suraj (IND) | 20:23.30 | 20:20 | 40:43.30 | 20 | 50 | 60 |
| | | | | | | |
| Wang Xin (CHN) | 20:28.02 | 20:20 | 40:48.02 | 20 | 40 | 50 |
| | | | | | | |
| Menjivar Gilberto (ESA) | 20:31.53 | 20:30 | 41:01.53 | - | 20 | 30 |
| | | | | | | |
| Finocchietti Davide (ITA) | 20:51.96 | 20:30 | 41:21.96 | - | - | 20 |
Finally, for the stage first positions we also see with great interest Jan Moreu (PUR) and Lubomir Kubis (SVK) that in our opinion was the negative surprise of the first stage.
5.000m U18 girls track walk
Also in girls we see a medal hypothesis restricted to six athletes: Xi Ricuo (CHN), Ramos Rodriguez, Sofia Elizabeth (MEX), Fiaska Olga (GRE), Villalva Maria (ECU), Demir Evin (TUR) and Bertini Simona (ITA).
| Athlete | 1st stage | Red Cards |
| | | |
| Xi Ricuo (CHN) | 22:23.26 | 2 |
| | | |
| Ramos Rodriguez Sofia Elizabeth (MEX) | 22:29.52 | 1 |
| | | |
| Fiaska Olga (GRE) | 22:46.13 | 1 |
| | | |
| Villalva Maria (ECU) | 22:48.75 | - |
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| Demir Evin (TUR) | 23:25.54 | 1 |
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| Bertini Simona (ITA) | 23:32.20 | 2 |
Obviously we exclude Hanna Zubkova (BLR) who with the disqualification in the first stage has compromised the final result.
All the six athletes taken into consideration obtained the personal best here in Buenos Aires and therefore we assume that the margins for improvement are not very high.
The result of the race (and therefore the arrival time) will therefore be greatly influenced by the technical approach to the race.
Here are our percentages
| Athlete | 1st stage | Forecast 2nd stage | Forecast Total | % Gold | % Silver | % Bronze |
| | | | | | | |
| Xi Ricuo (CHN) | 22:23.26 | 22:20 | 44:43.26 | 40 | 100 | 100 |
| | | | | | | |
| Ramos Rodriguez Sofia Elizabeth (MEX) | 22:29.52 | 22:25 | 44:51.52 | 30 | 100 | 100 |
| | | | | | | |
| Fiaska Olga (GRE) | 22:46.13 | 22:30 | 45:16.13 | 20 | 50 | 70 |
| | | | | | | |
| Villalva Maria (ECU) | 22:48.75 | 22:30 | 45:18.75 | 10 | 50 | 70 |
| | | | | | | |
| Demir Evin (TUR) | 23:25.54 | 23:20 | 46:45.54 | - | - | 30 |
| | | | | | | |
| Bertini Simona (ITA) | 23:32.20 | 23:20 | 46:52.20 | - | - | 30 |