18/09/2019   Doha (QAT) - 50km World Championships (Women) - preview






Saturday, September 28th at an unusual time for Europe (22.30), the Doha World Championships in Qatar begin for the race walks events.

 
 
The first race scheduled is that of the 50km which will see men and women together at the start.
 
Twenty-four women athletes representing 14 countries are registered in the women's race.
And it starts immediately with a surprise: the holder of the world record Liu Hong (3:59:15) will not be at the start having chosen, for reasons of continuity in the training, to compete in the 20km.
Moreover, Klavdiya Afanasyeva (RUS) will not even be at the start. She had achieved an even better performance in Cheboksary on June 15, 2019 (3:57:08) but that had not been homologated as a world record as it lacked the requirement of the three international judges to judge the race.
 
With the absence of the Afanasyeva, to which the status of ANA was revoked last year, and of Liu Hong the race loses two of the main competitors, but above all of the possible favorites.
 
The world season list of 2019 sees in the first 20 positions:
- 2 Russian
- 6 Chinese
- 1 Italian
- 2 Spanish
- 2 Ecuadorians
- 1 Australian
- 1 Guatemalan
- 1 Portuguese
- 2 Ukrainian
- 1 Slovakian
- 1 Belarusian
 
The game of registration (no more than three per country) and the technical choices of each individual Country make us restrict the fight for the medals only to 6 athletes:
- 2 Chinese: Li Maocuo and Ma Faying
- 1 Italian: Eleonora Anna Giorgi
- 1 Spanish: Julia Tackacs
- 1 Portuguese: Ines Henriques
- 1 Ukraine: Valentyna Myronchuk
 
Among the outsiders we include Maria Czakova (SVK), Natassia Yatsevich (BLR) and Paola Bibiana Perez (ECU) and Liang  Rui (CHN). 
The former world record-holder Liang Rui finished a distant seventh in selection race in Huangshan, but she had been ahead of world record pace for the first 20km before suffering from stomach pains. Her 1:28:49 clocking over 20km in La Coruna – the second-fastest time of her career – shows she is in good form.
 
In the following tables we have published our successful hypotheses for obtaining a medal from the individual athletes.
 
 

Athlete  Gold - %  Silver - %  Bronze - %
       
Li Maocuo (CHN) 30 % 40 % 50 %
Ma Faying (CHN) 25 % 35 % 45 %
Eleonora Anna Giorgi (ITA) 30 % 40 % 50 %
Julia Takacs (ESP) 25 % 35 % 45 %
Rui Liang (CHN) 15 % 30 % 40 %
Ines Henriques (POR) 10 % 25 % 35 %
Valentina Myronchuck (UKR) 10 % 25 % 35 %
Maria Czakova (SVK) - - 20 &
Natassia Yastsevich (BLR) - - 15 &
Paola Bibiana Perez (ECU) - - 15 %
 
 
 
and also for the same (and for others) the chances of success to finish the race in first eight athletes and in first 16 athletes (finalists and semifinalists).
 
 

Athlete First eight - % From 8 to 16 - %
     
Li Maocuo (CHN) 100 % 100 %
Ma Faying (CHN) 100 % 100 %
Eleonora Anna Giorgi (ITA) 100 % 100 %
Julia Takacs (ESP) 100 % 100 %
Ines Henriques (POR) 100 % 100 %
Valentina Myronchuck (UKR) 100 % 100 %
Maria Czakova (SVK) 90 % 100 %
Natassia Yastsevich (BLR) 90 % 100 %
Paola Bibiana Perez (ECU) 90 % 100 %
Olena Sobchuk (UKR) 70 % 80 %
Nadzeya Darazhuk (BLR) 60 % 80 %
Rui Liang (CHN) 70 % 90 %
Masumi Fuchise (JPN) 50 % 90 %
Khrystina Yudkina (UKR) 30 % 70 %
Ivana Renic (CRO) 15 % 50 %
Maria Juarez (ESP) 5 % 40 %
Mariavittoria Becchetti (ITA) 5 % 40 %
Mara Ribeiro (POR) - 20 %
Nicole Colombi (ITA) - 20 %
Angeliki Makri (GRE) - 20 %
Tiia Kuikka (FIN) - 20 %
Elianay Pereira (ECU) - 20 %
Magaly Bonilla (ECU) - 10 %
Katie Burnett (USA) - 10 %