02/10/2019   Analysis of the 20 km women and comparison with the previous world championship in London 2017






We must immediately say (for those not present in Doha) that the weather conditions are beyond the limit of the thinkable. Never has a competition of this level taken place in these last years in these conditions. Maybe we need to get to Melbourne 1956 (Olympics) to find some comparison to the current situation. The simple atmospheric numbers on heat and humidity are not enough to explain the real conditions in which you are competing. The perceived temperature is at least 5/6 degrees more; the warm wind coming from the desert does not allow normal breathing; the heat of the headlights to illuminate the course further heats up the road. All very unfavorable components for athletes. The walkers were all very good at just finishing the race.

 

Clearly with these perspectives the athletes presented themselves at the start with much fear. So it was for the two 50 km; so it was for the 20 km. women and so probably it will be for the 20 km. men.

 

 

Doha 2019

 

Despite these premises the female 20km  was very interesting and pleasant from an athletic point of view.

First 5 km at the pace of 4:48 per km. (24:01). At this pace there are 21 athletes in the leading group. The pace does not change much for other 3 km.

After passing to 8 km. Qieyang imposes a first acceleration bringing the pace to 4:40. The passage to 10km was clocked 47:51 (4.47/km - 23:50 was the split of the second 5km at the pace of 4:46/km.). Qieyang's acceleration creams off the group a lot and at the halfway point of the race there are only nine athletes in the leading pack.

 

 

The four Chinese athletes still increase a little the speed, so that at 15 km. only the Brazilian De Sena and the Colombian, Arenas remain with them.

The passage to 15 km. was of 1:11:02 (4.44/km. - 23:11 was the split of the third 5km at a pace of 4.38/km.).

The last phase of the race was exciting and with great pathos. At 16 km. it is always Qieyang that increases speed and walks at very high pace in this climate. This change of pace causes the pull out of the Arenas (COL). In the leading pack are now five athletes. At 18 km. De Sena (BRA) pull out. A Chinese quartet is going to play for the victory,  but after a while one of the four is disqualified: Yang Jiayu.

Exactly 1,5km from the finish line, Liu Hong accelerates violently. For a few hundred meters he tries to resist her companion Qieyang, but she too must surrender. Liu Hong walks from 18 to 19 km. in 4:17.

 

 

The last km of the Olympic champion of Rio is very impressive. The two-time winner of the world title goes to make a set with a final in 4:09, leaving at 17" Qieyang Shenjie and at 24" the very young (year of birth 1998) and, real surprise of the race: Yang Liujing.

Last 5 km. for Liu Hong in 21:51 (4.22/km.). The mark of the last 3 km is impressive: 12:50 (4.17/km.).

The last 2 km: (8:26 - 4.13/km.).

Qieyang Shenjie covers the last 5 km. in 22:08 (4.25/km.); last 3km in 13:08 (4.23/km); last 2km in 8:43 (4.22/km).

From these times we will notice how the great ability of Liu Hong has made the difference in the change of pace of the last 2km. Qieyang Shenjie failed this change of pace.

 

 

London 2017

 

 

On the wide avenue The Mall, under favorable conditions, the passage to 5 km. had occurred in 22:22 (4.28/km.) with only 11 athletes in the leading pack.

At 10 km. the mark was of 44:10 (4.25/km. - 21:48 the split time of second 5km at the pace of 4.22/km.) and in the leading pack there were 10 athletes.

At 15 km. the mark was of 1:05:33 (4.22/km) with 5 athletes in the lead. The split of third 5km was 21:23 (4.17/km.).

The final saw 4 athletes play for the victory up to the last 600 meters. With a split of 20:45 (4:09/km) between 15km and the 20km.

 

 

Summary in figures

 

- in Doha 2019 the partial every 5 km. were: 24:01 (pace 4.48/km) - 23:50 (4.46/km) - 23.11 (4.38/km) - 21:51 (4.22/km)

- in London 2017 had been: 22:22 (pace 4.28/km) - 21:48 (4.22/km) - 21:23 (4.17/km) - 20:45 (4.09/km)

 

The pace was slower in Doha

- in the first 5 km: of 20"/km;

- in the second 5 km: 24"/km;

- in third parties 5km: of 21"/km;

- in the last 5km: of 13"/km

 

The two races had a competitive and fairly similar pace up to 15 km. (10" change of pace from the beginning to the 15 km in Doha; 11" the change of pace in the same km in London).

In the last 5 km. the differential was only 13".

From these data it could be said that the Doha final was more difficult and, taking into account the hot weather, faster.

 

Conclusions

 

As far as we have been able to observe up to now on the winners' times (even of the two 50km) the differential between Doha 2019 and London 2019 appears in the following table:

 

 

Event  Doha 2019 Speed/km London 2017 Speed/km  Difference Speed/km
           
50km men 4:04:20 4.53/km 3:33:12 4.16/km 37"/km slower in Doda
           
50km women 4:23:26 5.16/km 4:05:56 4.46/km 30"/km slower in Doha
           
20km women 1:32:53 4:39/km 1:26:18 4.19/km 20"/km slower in Doha
           
20km men     1:18:53 3.57/km  

 

 

With these premises and considering the differentials already observed it is conceivable that in the 20km men of Doha a speed per km slower than about 15 "-18".
 
That is about 4.12/4.15 per km. for a final time between 1:24:00 and 1:25:00.