05/11/2019   Evolution of the average speed of the best athlete and the top 10 athletes in the 20km men: "Italy vs World"






Also this year Marcia dal Mondo wanted to enrich its statistical analyzes by adding the following interesting comparisons:

 
a) 20 km men: the speed of the top athlete in Italy compared to that of the top athlete in the World
 
b) 20 km men: the average speed of the first 10 athletes in Italy compared with that of the first 10 athletes in the World
 
In 2018 and earlier this average speed had been compared considering the top 10 athletes of Italy, against the top 20 athletes in the world.
We were afraid of not having 20 athletes for all race walk events in order to have a homogeneous average, or to have but of a strongly lower level than the first 10 so that the same average was distorted in negative by their performances.
For this reason we decided in 2019 to rewrite the world averages considering the first 10 athletes and finally we have limited the comparison to the last 10 years.
We will behave similarly also in the future.
 
The chart that we propose to our readers is quite simple in its reading, but some more precise informations are needed.
 
 
Italy best vs World best
 
We can say that this decade had opened with an Italian leader in the world list in the 20km in 2010 (Alex Schwazer, 1:18:24, Lugano SUI, 14.3.2010 is one of the performances not canceled by the IAAF following the known events on the athlete).
Similarly, the decade ends with another Italian in the top area of 2019 world list (Massimo Stano, 1:17:45, La Coruna ESP, 8.6.2019).
Only 30" separate the first of 2019 from Massimo Stano, but these 30" contain two other athletes (Masatora Kawano and Koki Ikeda) both from Japan (and gold and silver in Universitary Games in Naples 2019) as the world leader (and World Champion in Doha) Toshikazu Yamanishi.
To tell the truth in La Coruna (the first race of the year in which the two competed together) the advantage in favor of Yamanishi on Stano was only 4" (1:17:41); in Doha the Italian was forced to stop in the Penalty Zone for two minutes while the Japanese was in front of the race towards what would later be his victory.
 
A cycle was therefore completed in which the worst moment was the year 2015.
That year, Yusuke Suzuki (JPN), now the 50km World Champion, broke the 20km world record in Nomi (JPN) in 1:16:36 which corresponds to an average speed of 15,67 km/hr.
In Italy in 2015 only Giorgio Rubino managed to go below 1:22:00 (1:21:38, Rio Maior POR, 18.4.2015) which corresponds to an average speed of 14,70 km/hr.
 
In this table we summarize the differences found in the decade of the average speed of the best athlete on the 20km.
 
 

Anno

World 

Top speed

Italy

Top speed

Difference

in km/hr

       
2010 15,31 15,31 -
       
2011 15,29 14,86 - 0,43
       
2012 15,46 14,97 - 0,49
       
2013 15,27 14,79 - 0,48
       
2014 15,33 14,86 - 0,47
       
2015 15,67 14,70 - 0,97
       
2016 15,30 14,92 - 0,38
       
2017 15,40 14,86 - 0,54
       
2018 15,50 14,84 - 0,66
       
2019 15,53 15,43 - 0,10

 

 

 

Average first 10 athletes Italy vs average first 10 athletes World

 

 

In this table we summarize the differences found in the decade of the average speeds of the first 10 athletes on the 20km.

 

 

 

Anno

World 

average 10 speed

Italy

average 10 speed

Difference

in km/hr

       
2010 15,03 14,29 - 0,32
       
2011 15,08 14,03 - 1,05
       
2012 15,20 14,16 - 1,04
       
2013 15,14 14,19 - 0,95
       
2014 15,17 14,13 - 1,04
       
2015 15,30 14,33 - 0,97
       
2016 15,17 14,44 - 0,73
       
2017 15,24 14,42 - 0,82
       
2018 15,27 14,35 - 0,92
       
2019 15,41 14,63 - 0,78

 

 

 
What already indicated for 2010 and 2019 for the top athlete is also reflected in the average values ​​of the first 10 athletes.
In fact, 2010 and 2019 the two Italians in the top positions in the world lists contributed more to the increase in the average speed of Italy's top 10 than they did worldwide, and this is quite normal.
A nation, unless it is a battleship like these years are Japan, in men and China, in women, hardly has its 10 best performers who also monopolize the top 10 positions in the World.
 
What instead must sound like an alarm bell is instead the fact that, despite the contribution made by Massimo Stano in increasing the average speed of the first 10 athletes in Italy, the gap between Italy and the top 10 in the world is stabilizing in a neighborhood of  - 0.80 km/hr.
Which means that if the average athlete of the top 10 in the World competes in a mark between 1:17:30 and 1:18:00, the average Italian would make a mark between 1:21:30 - 1:22:00.
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 


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